// Tools · Break-even

Break-Even Win Rate

Enter a price. Out comes the win rate you need just to break even — the bar every bet has to clear before it makes you a dollar.

Required win rate to break even

The number every bet has to clear

Break-even win rate is the implied probability of the price you're taking. At -110 it's 52.4%. At -150 it's 60%. At +200 it's 33.3%. Below that rate you lose money over time no matter how good any individual bet felt.

Why 52.4% is the number people quote

-110 is the standard price on point spreads and totals, so 52.4% became the benchmark for whether someone can actually bet. It sounds close to a coin flip, and that's the trap: the gap between 50% and 52.4% is the entire business model of a sportsbook. Long-term winners typically land in the 53-55% range — a couple of points above break-even, not double digits.

Reading it the other way

This calculator also answers the reverse question. If you think a team wins 58% of the time, any price with a break-even below 58% is a bet worth making. That comparison is exactly what the edge calculator automates, and what expected value turns into dollars.

We run these numbers on every game on the board, every day — or see all ten calculators on one page.

Inside the Number · every game priced at what the market really thinks · free pick daily · 21+ only. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.