| Market | BOS | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -119 | +111 |
| Run line | -1.5 | |
| Total 7 | Over -120 | Under +100 |
| BOS | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| Win chance (no-vig) | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| Break-even at the price | 54.3% | 47.4% |
Both posted prices together imply more than 100% — that surplus (1.7% here) is what the book keeps. Strip it out and the market makes this BOS 53.4%, MIA 46.6%. The break-even row is the win rate you'd need at the posted price just to tread water — the gap between the two rows is the cost of the bet.
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