| Market | CIN | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -158 | +147 |
| Run line | -1.5 | |
| Total 7 | Over -121 | Under +101 |
| CIN | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| Win chance (no-vig) | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| Break-even at the price | 61.2% | 40.5% |
Both posted prices together imply more than 100% — that surplus (1.7% here) is what the book keeps. Strip it out and the market makes this CIN 60.2%, SF 39.8%. The break-even row is the win rate you'd need at the posted price just to tread water — the gap between the two rows is the cost of the bet.
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