// MLB · August 25, 2026

Pirates at Padres

8/25 - 9:40 PM EDT · Petco Park · PIT 64-69 — SD 71-61 · lines via DraftKings

The prices

MarketPITSD
Moneyline+111-119
Run line+1.5
Total 7.5Over +103Under -125

What the market really thinks

PITSD
Win chance (no-vig)46.6%53.4%
Break-even at the price47.4%54.3%

Both posted prices together imply more than 100% — that surplus (1.7% here) is what the book keeps. Strip it out and the market makes this PIT 46.6%, SD 53.4%. The break-even row is the win rate you'd need at the posted price just to tread water — the gap between the two rows is the cost of the bet.

Prices move all day. The live version of this game — score, line movement and the rest of the board — is on today's board.

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