| Market | ATL | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -162 | +134 |
| Run line | -1.5 | |
| Total 9 | Over -117 | Under -103 |
| Market-implied pick | Win chance | Projected score |
|---|---|---|
| Braves | 59% | Braves 5, Nationals 4 |
Strip the book's cut out of the moneyline and the market calls this a modest Braves lean. Enough to make Braves the prediction, not enough to call the moneyline a value bet at this price. On the total, the under is the cheaper side of 9 at the posted prices. The projected score is the posted total split by that win chance — a market projection, not a model. Our own side on this game, if we take one, goes out in the newsletter before first pitch.
| ATL | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Win chance (no-vig) | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| Break-even at the price | 61.8% | 42.7% |
Both posted prices together imply more than 100% — that surplus (4.6% here) is what the book keeps. Strip it out and the market makes this ATL 59.1%, WSH 40.9%. The break-even row is the win rate you'd need at the posted price just to tread water — the gap between the two rows is the cost of the bet.
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Get every pick free →Prices move all day. The live version of this game — score, line movement and the rest of the board — is on today's board.