| Market | CHW | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +113 | -136 |
| Run line | +1.5 | |
| Total 8.5 | Over -115 | Under -105 |
| Market-implied pick | Win chance | Projected score |
|---|---|---|
| Astros | 55% | Astros 5, White Sox 4 |
Strip the book's cut out of the moneyline and the market calls this a modest Astros lean. Enough to make Astros the prediction, not enough to call the moneyline a value bet at this price. On the total, the under is the cheaper side of 8.5 at the posted prices. The projected score is the posted total split by that win chance — a market projection, not a model. Our own side on this game, if we take one, goes out in the newsletter before first pitch.
| CHW | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Win chance (no-vig) | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| Break-even at the price | 46.9% | 57.6% |
Both posted prices together imply more than 100% — that surplus (4.6% here) is what the book keeps. Strip it out and the market makes this CHW 44.9%, HOU 55.1%. The break-even row is the win rate you'd need at the posted price just to tread water — the gap between the two rows is the cost of the bet.
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