| Market | NYY | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -171 | +141 |
| Run line | -1.5 | |
| Total 7 | Over -102 | Under -119 |
| Market-implied pick | Win chance | Projected score |
|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 60% | Yankees 4, Angels 3 |
Strip the book's cut out of the moneyline and the market calls this a clear Yankees favorite. The question is not who wins but whether -171 is worth paying for it — see the break-even row below. On the total, the over is the cheaper side of 7 at the posted prices. The projected score is the posted total split by that win chance — a market projection, not a model. Our own side on this game, if we take one, goes out in the newsletter before first pitch.
| NYY | LAA | |
|---|---|---|
| Win chance (no-vig) | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| Break-even at the price | 63.1% | 41.5% |
Both posted prices together imply more than 100% — that surplus (4.6% here) is what the book keeps. Strip it out and the market makes this NYY 60.3%, LAA 39.7%. The break-even row is the win rate you'd need at the posted price just to tread water — the gap between the two rows is the cost of the bet.
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Get every pick free →Prices move all day. The live version of this game — score, line movement and the rest of the board — is on today's board.