| Market | SD | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -155 | +128 |
| Run line | -1.5 | |
| Total 9.5 | Over -108 | Under -112 |
| Market-implied pick | Win chance | Projected score |
|---|---|---|
| Padres | 58% | Padres 5, Reds 4 |
Strip the book's cut out of the moneyline and the market calls this a modest Padres lean. Enough to make Padres the prediction, not enough to call the moneyline a value bet at this price. On the total, the over is the cheaper side of 9.5 at the posted prices. The projected score is the posted total split by that win chance — a market projection, not a model. Our own side on this game, if we take one, goes out in the newsletter before first pitch.
| SD | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Win chance (no-vig) | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| Break-even at the price | 60.8% | 43.9% |
Both posted prices together imply more than 100% — that surplus (4.6% here) is what the book keeps. Strip it out and the market makes this SD 58.1%, CIN 41.9%. The break-even row is the win rate you'd need at the posted price just to tread water — the gap between the two rows is the cost of the bet.
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