| Market | TOR | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -131 | +109 |
| Run line | -1.5 | |
| Total 7 | Over -117 | Under -103 |
| Market-implied pick | Win chance | Projected score |
|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | 54% | Blue Jays 4, Guardians 3 |
Strip the book's cut out of the moneyline and the market calls this a modest Blue Jays lean. Enough to make Blue Jays the prediction, not enough to call the moneyline a value bet at this price. On the total, the under is the cheaper side of 7 at the posted prices. The projected score is the posted total split by that win chance — a market projection, not a model. Our own side on this game, if we take one, goes out in the newsletter before first pitch.
| TOR | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| Win chance (no-vig) | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| Break-even at the price | 56.7% | 47.8% |
Both posted prices together imply more than 100% — that surplus (4.6% here) is what the book keeps. Strip it out and the market makes this TOR 54.2%, CLE 45.8%. The break-even row is the win rate you'd need at the posted price just to tread water — the gap between the two rows is the cost of the bet.
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