| Market | ALB | BUFF |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +750 | -1200 |
| Run line | +18.5 | |
| Total 48.5 | Over -110 | Under -110 |
| Market-implied pick | Win chance | Projected score |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 89% | Buffalo 34, UAlbany 15 |
Strip the book's cut out and the market calls this a clear Buffalo favorite. The question is not who wins but whether -1200 is worth paying for it — see the break-even row below. On the total, the over is the cheaper side of 48.5 at the posted prices. The projected score is the posted total split by the spread — the market's own expected margin, not a model of ours. Our own side on this game, if we take one, goes out in the newsletter before kickoff.
| ALB | BUFF | |
|---|---|---|
| Win chance (no-vig) | 11.3% | 88.7% |
| Break-even at the price | 11.8% | 92.3% |
Both posted prices together imply more than 100% — that surplus (4.1% here) is what the book keeps. Strip it out and the market makes this ALB 11.3%, BUFF 88.7%. The break-even row is the win rate you'd need at the posted price just to tread water — the gap between the two rows is the cost of the bet.
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Get every pick free →Prices move all day. The live version of this game — score, line movement and the rest of the board — is on today's board.