| Market | BOS | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -136 | +113 |
| Run line | -1.5 | |
| Total 8.5 | Over -103 | Under -117 |
| Market-implied pick | Win chance | Projected score |
|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | 55% | Red Sox 5, Orioles 4 |
Strip the book's cut out and the market calls this a modest Red Sox lean. Enough to make Red Sox the prediction, not enough to call the moneyline a value bet at this price. On the total, the over is the cheaper side of 8.5 at the posted prices. The projected score is the posted total split by that win chance — a market projection, not a model of ours. Our own side on this game, if we take one, goes out in the newsletter before kickoff.
| BOS | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Win chance (no-vig) | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| Break-even at the price | 57.6% | 46.9% |
Both posted prices together imply more than 100% — that surplus (4.6% here) is what the book keeps. Strip it out and the market makes this BOS 55.1%, BAL 44.9%. The break-even row is the win rate you'd need at the posted price just to tread water — the gap between the two rows is the cost of the bet.
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Get every pick free →Prices move all day. The live version of this game — score, line movement and the rest of the board — is on today's board.