| Market | TOL | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +320 | -410 |
| Run line | +10 | |
| Total 46.5 | Over -115 | Under -105 |
| Market-implied pick | Win chance | Projected score |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan St | 77% | Michigan St 28, Toledo 18 |
Strip the book's cut out and the market calls this a clear Michigan St favorite. The question is not who wins but whether -410 is worth paying for it — see the break-even row below. On the total, the under is the cheaper side of 46.5 at the posted prices. The projected score is the posted total split by the spread — the market's own expected margin, not a model of ours. Our own side on this game, if we take one, goes out in the newsletter before kickoff.
| TOL | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Win chance (no-vig) | 22.8% | 77.2% |
| Break-even at the price | 23.8% | 80.4% |
Both posted prices together imply more than 100% — that surplus (4.2% here) is what the book keeps. Strip it out and the market makes this TOL 22.8%, MSU 77.2%. The break-even row is the win rate you'd need at the posted price just to tread water — the gap between the two rows is the cost of the bet.
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Get every pick free →Prices move all day. The live version of this game — score, line movement and the rest of the board — is on today's board.