| Market | TXST | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +2200 | -8000 |
| Run line | +29.5 | |
| Total 59.5 | Over -108 | Under -112 |
| Market-implied pick | Win chance | Projected score |
|---|---|---|
| Texas | 96% | Texas 44, Texas St 15 |
Strip the book's cut out and the market calls this a clear Texas favorite. The question is not who wins but whether -8000 is worth paying for it — see the break-even row below. On the total, the over is the cheaper side of 59.5 at the posted prices. The projected score is the posted total split by the spread — the market's own expected margin, not a model of ours. Our own side on this game, if we take one, goes out in the newsletter before kickoff.
| TXST | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| Win chance (no-vig) | 4.2% | 95.8% |
| Break-even at the price | 4.3% | 98.8% |
Both posted prices together imply more than 100% — that surplus (3.1% here) is what the book keeps. Strip it out and the market makes this TXST 4.2%, TEX 95.8%. The break-even row is the win rate you'd need at the posted price just to tread water — the gap between the two rows is the cost of the bet.
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Get every pick free →Prices move all day. The live version of this game — score, line movement and the rest of the board — is on today's board.