Everyone posts a parlay. Almost nobody prints the number underneath it: the win rate the ticket needs just to break even, next to the chance those legs actually land. Both are below, every day.
Three bets you would make on their own, priced as one you would not. Every leg above is a bet we would make on its own; the reasoning for each is on the free pick and the board. Together they are priced worse than the sum of their parts, and that is not an accident — the book’s cut compounds with every leg you add.
One pick a day with the full reasoning, the line movement, and what beats it — written before kickoff, not after.
Get it free →Convert each leg's American price to decimal, multiply them together, and that is your payout. Three legs at −110 come to 1.909 × 1.909 × 1.909 = 6.96, or about +596. The payout is not generous; it is arithmetic.
The break-even is the same arithmetic read backwards: 1 divided by the combined decimal odds. That 6.96 ticket has to win 14.4% of the time before it makes a cent. If the three legs were true coin flips you would land all three 12.5% of the time. The distance between those two numbers is the book's cut, compounded — and it compounds every time you add a leg.
That is the entire case against parlays, and it is also why we still publish one. A parlay you understand the price of is a different object from a parlay sold to you as free money. Run your own on the parlay calculator, or read the fair price on every game on the board.
Every leg here is a bet that stands on its own — usually a number that moved toward the side we like, with the open and the current price both shown. We do not build a ticket to reach a payout. We take the day's picks and price them honestly as a group, which usually makes the parlay look worse than the singles. It should.
We publish no record, no ROI and no units, here or anywhere. Every parlay we have posted is listed below with the price it carried, so you can check the claim rather than trust it.