Thirty players, no cut, everyone starts level — lowest 72-hole score takes the FedEx Cup and the $10 million. Below is the full board with every price turned into a plain win chance, and our pick with the reasoning shown.
This pick is mostly about the man he has to beat. Scheffler at +320 is priced like the best player alive at full strength — but he spent last week playing through hand, foot and mouth disease. His own words after the BMW: it was painful to grip the club, he couldn't practice, work out or warm up properly, withdrawal was suggested, and a week out he was still hoping the throat "will clear up the next couple days." His Thursday 72 beat three players in a 50-man field.
The format makes that matter more, not less. No cut, even start, four rounds, thirty players: season-long dominance carries nothing forward, and there's no early cushion to recover behind. If illness costs the favorite even a few points of win probability, that probability flows uphill — and the market's own board says McIlroy is where most of it lands. He's the clear second choice at nearly triple Scheffler's price, healthy, and by every account swinging well.
At +850, Rory needs to win about one time in nine for the bet to pay for itself. We think the honest gap between a compromised Scheffler and a healthy McIlroy is narrower than +320 against +850 says it is.
Scheffler recovering — he says he's improving, and even sick he played the last 54 holes at Bellerive nine under. That version of him at East Lake wins this bet nothing. And this is a golf outright: 29 ways to lose, in the most expensive market on the calendar. Size accordingly.
| Player | Odds (DK) | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +320 | 18.0% |
| Rory McIlroy ★ | +850 | 7.9% |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1400 | 5.0% |
| Xander Schauffele | +1475 | 4.8% |
| Wyndham Clark | +1475 | 4.8% |
| Sam Burns | +1475 | 4.8% |
| Cameron Young | +1600 | 4.4% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +1650 | 4.3% |
| Patrick Cantlay | +1750 | 4.1% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1850 | 3.9% |
| Chris Gotterup | +1950 | 3.7% |
| Collin Morikawa | +2150 | 3.4% |
| Si Woo Kim | +2300 | 3.1% |
| Russell Henley | +2500 | 2.9% |
| Viktor Hovland | +2700 | 2.7% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3100 | 2.4% |
| J.J. Spaun | +3800 | 1.9% |
| Ryan Gerard | +4200 | 1.8% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | +4300 | 1.7% |
| Robert MacIntyre | +4300 | 1.7% |
| Min Woo Lee | +4600 | 1.6% |
| Justin Rose | +4600 | 1.6% |
| Tom Kim | +5000 | 1.5% |
| Adam Scott | +5000 | 1.5% |
| Alex Smalley | +5700 | 1.3% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | +6000 | 1.2% |
| Gary Woodland | +6000 | 1.2% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | +7600 | 1.0% |
| Ryan Fox | +8200 | 0.9% |
| Akshay Bhatia | +8400 | 0.9% |
How to read this. Win chance is the market's honest opinion of each player once the bookmaker's cut is taken out — all thirty add up to 100%. Betting a golfer to win outright is the longest of long games: even the favorite misses four times out of five. Fun-sized stakes only.