// UFC · Sat, Aug 29 · Shanghai, China
UFC Fight Night Shanghai
every fight, every price.
The best moneyline on both corners across major sportsbooks, records,
and each fighter's win chance in plain English. ESPN doesn't carry MMA odds. We do.
Prices updated Aug 25, 2026 15:27 UTC · best of 7 books
Yes, those start times are right — it's a Shanghai card. First fight
~5:00 AM CT, main event ~7:45 AM CT Saturday. Coffee, not beer.
Main event
Yadong vs Nurmagomedov
Bantamweight · 7:45 AM CT
Closest fight
Jenkins / Woodson
near even money both ways — pick a side
Biggest favorite
Bilal Hasan
the books give him 84 in 100 — priced -650
7:45 AM CT · Bantamweight
7 books quoted
Song Yadong
23-9-1
+425
best price: Bovada
win chance 19%
vs
Umar Nurmagomedov
20-1-0
-500
best price: BetOnline.ag
win chance 81%
Umar is the latest product of the famous Dagestani wrestling pipeline — Khabib's cousin — and fights like it: forward pressure, chain wrestling, nothing wasted. Song Yadong is the kind of one-punch bantamweight who can end a round he's losing. The whole fight is one question: does it stay standing long enough for that power to matter? The books say almost certainly not.
5:00 AM CT · Flyweight
7 books quoted
Alex Perez
26-10-0
+200
best price: BetMGM
win chance 32%
vs
Su Mudaerji
19-7-0
-225
best price: BetOnline.ag
win chance 68%
Alex Perez has fought for a UFC flyweight title, and that experience is most of the case for him. Su Mudaerji is the faster, flashier striker with the home crowd behind him — the books lean his way and the atmosphere will too.
5:00 AM CT · Flyweight
7 books quoted
Andre Lima
11-1-0
-250
best price: BetMGM
win chance 70%
vs
Namsrai Batbayar
10-1-0
+225
best price: DraftKings
win chance 30%
The books lean Andre Lima, roughly 70 times out of 100. Namsrai Batbayar at +225 pays about 2.2-to-1 on the upset.
5:00 AM CT · Bantamweight
7 books quoted
Aori Qileng
26-13-0
+370
best price: Bovada
win chance 21%
vs
Kai Asakura
22-6-0
-425
best price: BetMGM
win chance 79%
Kai Asakura came over from Japan's RIZIN as a genuine star and has already fought for a UFC flyweight title. Aori Qileng is durable and will happily make it ugly, but the books see a class gap here — and it's hard to argue.
5:00 AM CT · Flyweight
7 books quoted
Bilal Hasan
9-0-0
-650
best price: FanDuel
win chance 84%
vs
Nilson Rojas
9-0-0
+505
best price: BetOnline.ag
win chance 16%
Bilal Hasan is heavy chalk — you're risking $650 to win $100. Nilson Rojas at +505 pays about 5-to-1 for anyone who thinks this fight is closer than the number.
5:00 AM CT · Welterweight
6 books quoted
Cameron Nelson
7-1-0
+130
best price: BetOnline.ag
win chance 43%
vs
Meng Ding
35-10-0
-142
best price: FanDuel
win chance 57%
The books lean Meng Ding, roughly 57 times out of 100. Cameron Nelson at +130 pays about 1.3-to-1 on the upset.
5:00 AM CT · Women's Strawweight
6 books quoted
Denise Gomes
12-3-0
+133
best price: Bovada
win chance 42%
vs
Yan Xiaonan
19-5-0
-144
best price: BetOnline.ag
win chance 58%
Yan Xiaonan has shared the cage with the very best at strawweight — she's challenged for the title — and this card is built around Chinese stars, so the moment won't rattle her. Denise Gomes is younger and walks forward for fifteen minutes straight. The books making the veteran only a modest favorite tells you how much they respect that pace.
5:00 AM CT · Bantamweight
7 books quoted
Francesco Nuzzi
11-2-0
+155
best price: BetMGM
win chance 38%
vs
Long Xiao
27-11-0
-175
best price: BetOnline.ag
win chance 62%
The books lean Long Xiao, roughly 62 times out of 100. Francesco Nuzzi at +155 pays about 1.6-to-1 on the upset.
5:00 AM CT · Bantamweight
7 books quoted
Hector Santiago
6-1-0
+230
best price: FanDuel
win chance 29%
vs
Lawrence Lui
8-1-0
-265
best price: BetOnline.ag
win chance 71%
The books lean Lawrence Lui, roughly 71 times out of 100. Hector Santiago at +230 pays about 2.3-to-1 on the upset.
5:00 AM CT · Featherweight
7 books quoted
Jack Jenkins
14-4-0
+128
best price: FanDuel
win chance 43%
vs
Sean Woodson
13-2-1
-142
best price: DraftKings
win chance 57%
The books lean Sean Woodson, roughly 57 times out of 100. Jack Jenkins at +128 pays about 1.3-to-1 on the upset.
5:00 AM CT · Women's Strawweight
7 books quoted
Jingnan Xiong
19-3-0
+210
best price: DraftKings
win chance 32%
vs
Julia Polastri
14-6-0
-230
best price: FanDuel
win chance 68%
The books lean Julia Polastri, roughly 68 times out of 100. Jingnan Xiong at +210 pays about 2.1-to-1 on the upset.
5:00 AM CT · Flyweight
7 books quoted
Kevin Borjas
11-5-0
+500
best price: BetMGM
win chance 16%
vs
Rei Tsuruya
11-1-0
-650
best price: BetOnline.ag
win chance 84%
Rei Tsuruya is heavy chalk — you're risking $650 to win $100. Kevin Borjas at +500 pays about 5-to-1 for anyone who thinks this fight is closer than the number.
5:00 AM CT
7 books quoted
Levi Rodrigues
5-1-0
+177
best price: BetOnline.ag
win chance 35%
vs
Liu Ce
3-1-0
-196
best price: FanDuel
win chance 65%
The books lean Liu Ce, roughly 65 times out of 100. Levi Rodrigues at +177 pays about 1.8-to-1 on the upset.
How to read this. The price shown is the best any major book is
offering on that corner right now — always take the best number on your side; over a
season it's the difference between winning and breaking even. Win chance is what the
market honestly gives each fighter once the bookmaker's cut is stripped out — both
corners add up to 100.